NCD Growth Projections - Where Could You Go? PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 17 May 2009 09:06


 This article was first published by Adam Johnstone on and is republished here, as a valuable resource and explanation of the new facilities within the NCD Profile Plus Report. 

Do visit the Colour Your World web pages, too.



Making progress on your NCD results is


really simple, right?!



All you're asked to do - while under existing time, resource and personnel pressures - is focus intently for a period of time on the Minimum Factor area/s of church life that you...

    * know least about
    * probably don't like
    * have historically tended to ignore
    * don't want to direct money or your best people towards
    * have sometimes had bad experiences with

...and all of this with the promise that sometime down the track (maybe years) you might see decline turn into slight growth, or slight growth turn into increased growth. Sounds like a motivational walk in the proverbial park. Maybe after lunch we'll tackle world peace and finish the day with some global cooling.

Of course, after "doing NCD" you might say (or show) that you think it is all too hard and go off in search of an easier program that will grow your church into the future. After a while though (like many around the world who left the process for this reason when admittedly the resourcing was far less developed but are now coming back), you will probably return to it eventually, having realised that universal principles are impossible to escape and must be dealt with one way or another if you are to see genuine long-term growth of your people and your church.


So, your options...


  • help your key influencers embrace the personal spiritual training and transformation required for significant NCD progress now OR
  • help your key influencers embrace the personal spiritual training and transformation required for significant NCD progress... later


The Challenge


With the nature of the NCD (see Biblical discipleship) challenge clearly in mind, it occurred to me that with 10 years of research data on hand, there should be something powerful of a motivational nature available from within those millions of numbers. I figured we should be able to give leadership teams a far better idea of what they can reasonably expect from their effortsif they were to take their results seriously and embark on the NCD spiritual training process with all their heart, soul, mind and strength.

What are NCD growth projections and why use them?

So, with the help of Christoph Schalk, I looked at the NCD database to determine what growth rate is experienced by the 'average Joe' church at different quality characteristic levels. This was not a search for the 'hallelujah' stories but a journey into the average team's world of local church ministry. The results were quite stunning to say the least.



 The above example shows what the 10 year projected growth is for a church starting with a combined weekly adult/child worship attendance of 50 and an NCD survey average of 20. The example below shows the same size church's projection if their NCD average was 80.




Where could you go with God?


Below is another version of the NCD Growth Projection. It shows a projection of the same church according to six NCD quality bands. You will notice at the right of this Possibility Projection that the increasing space between the lines points to the growing multiplication dynamics that automatically emerge as a church moves to higher levels of health - multiplication of disciples, small groups and eventually the whole church.



A very instructive part of this chart is the cluster of lines just above 'in one year'. Though from a quality perspective there is a great difference between the lowest and highest line, numerically there is only a very small change by that point - particularly when that change is spread out over 12 months. This numerical difference of course changes dramatically by the end of the 10 years but in the meantime, the 'in one year' point can serve as a sobering reminder of how natural multiplying growth happens. Some would listen to the story of a mega-church, or sit down and read the book of Acts in a day, and fall into the trap of believing that all that growth happened overnight - instead of over decades.

Apart from the stunning growth possibilities that a church (of any starting size) can experience if it develops its health, you will notice on the possibility chart a selection of other important factors in the background of churches at the healthier end of the spectrum - factors that show that the numerical growth itself is just the beginning.

These projection charts are now automatically included in all NCD detailed analysis reports around the world and are already proving to significantly improve the sober-mindedness, motivation and focus of leadership teams involved in the NCD process.

I hope it's helpful in your ministry.



© Adam Johnstone (NCD Partner in Australia)






Last Updated on Saturday, 11 May 2013 03:47